At a regular meeting of the Economic Growth Task Force chaired by Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of National Economy Serik Zhumangarin, forecasts for 2025 and approaches to sustaining economic growth in 2026 were reviewed.

In the manufacturing sector, the IFO stood at 105.9% for the first 11 months, with growth of 6% expected for the full year.

Forecast for key manufacturing sectors for 2025:

• metallurgy (40% of the manufacturing sector): 1.1% growth,
• machinery manufacturing (17.5%) – growth of 12%,
• food industry (13.1%): 9% growth.
• construction materials production (5.6%): 6% growth
• chemical industry (5.4%): 6% growth
• light industry (0.7%): 5% growth

At the headquarters meeting, special attention was paid to forecasts for the further development of the manufacturing industry as one of the key drivers of economic growth. The meeting reviewed the development prospects for non-ferrous and ferrous metallurgy, the implementation of projects financed by the Baiterek Holding, the state of infrastructure in the regions, and other factors affecting the sustainability of the industry’s growth.

Given the need for more efficient use of the regions’ resource and infrastructure potential, the Deputy Prime Minister instructed the preparation of a Roadmap to ensure growth rates in the manufacturing sectors by 2026, focusing on necessary measures critical to economic growth, as well as measures to support light industry and the production of construction materials.

In trade, with the IFO growing by 8.8% over 11 months, an 8.9% increase is expected by year-end. Five regions account for nearly 72% of the total contribution to trade growth:

• Almaty – 24.6 trillion tenge (trade in automobiles, machinery and equipment, pharmaceutical products, chocolate);
• Astana – 10.9 trillion tenge (sales of natural gas, diesel fuel, aviation gasoline and kerosene, meat, and dairy products);
• Atyrau Region – 6.7 trillion tenge (petroleum products, machinery and equipment);
• Karaganda Region – 4.5 trillion tenge (pharmaceutical goods, machinery and equipment, cosmetics);
• Shymkent – 3.6 trillion tenge (pharmaceutical products, fuel and lubricants, agricultural products).

In the retail sector, which involves approximately 760,000 businesses, the turnover of individual entrepreneurs grew by 10% and reached 8.2 trillion tenge. According to preliminary data, online sales for the first 11 months totaled 3.3 trillion tenge, which is 14.4% higher than in the same period last year.

Agriculture is demonstrating steady growth across all sectors. As of the end of the 11-month period, the IFO stood at 106.1%; by year-end, growth is expected to reach 5%, exceeding the target by 3%.

Growth above the national average was recorded in Akmola (115.7%), Kostanay (115.4%), North Kazakhstan (110.5%), Pavlodar (108.2%), and Atyrau regions (107.4%).

Against the backdrop of consistently high yields of traditional crops, high-margin oilseeds and legumes have become the most significant growth drivers this year. A record legume harvest was achieved—over 1.1 million tons. For the first time, oilseed production reached 4.7 million tons. The cotton harvest amounted to 428,000 tons—the highest figure in the last 18 years, with a yield of 29.6 cwt/ha.

Source: primeminister.kz